The CutX app provides nation by nation data for the remaining carbon budgets for 1.5°C and 2°C. Endorsed by the world’s most eminent climate scientists, the numbers show the gap between current policy pledges and the level of commitment required.
The numbers provide the clearest possible view because they are:
1. calculated per capita (everyone has an equal right to the atmosphere)
2. Rooted in the carbon budget
3. do not include unproven carbon capture technology.
4. are be based on consumption, not territorial emissions.
5. do not include dangerous overshoot.
6. the emissions reductions needed start from now and continue at that rate.
Sources:
UN Only One Earth Science – Summary for Future Generations
Michael Wadleigh, Birgit van Munster
Further explanation, references and data: birgitvmunster@gmail.com, +44 7538 416
The scientists listed below are among other eminent scientists that have reviewed and support the public communication of this existential UN science presented by OnlyOneEarth.science.
Dr Jian Liu (Chief Scientist UNEP),
Dr Pavel Kabat (Chief Scientist WMO),
Dr Soumya Swaminathan (Chief Scientist WHO),
Dr Youba Sokona (Vice Chair IPCC),
Dr Janez Potocnik (Co Chair IRP),
Dr Shamila Nair-Bedouelle (Director General Science UNESCO),
Dr Guido Schmidt-Traub (Executive Director UNSDSN),
Dr Elizabeth Mrema (Executive Secretary CBD),
Dr Stefan Swartling Peterson (Director Health UNICEF)
Background data sources:
Global Carbon Budget 2020, Consumption emissions.
* when consumption emissions are not known, territorial emissions are used (76 nations, 3.9% of total emissions, 9.4% of population)
* Meinshausen M J et al, (2021) NDC factsheets, https://www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR6, WG1, Climate Change (2021) The Physical Science Basis. Table 5.8: Assessed remaining carbon budget - 83% probability is used.
The remaining Carbon Budget to limit global warming to 1.5ºC / 2ºC (compared to 1850-1900) is 300 / 900 GtCO2 by 1/1/2020, or 260 / 860 GtCO2 by 2021, for a 83% probability, with no overshoot and no negative emissions.
88% of budget allocated to fossil fuel emissions and cement equals 229 / 757 GtCO2 from 2021 onwards.
United Nations World Population Prospects – 2019 revision.
Human population in 2021 is 7.9 billion. 229 / 757 billion tonnes of CO2 divided over 7.9 billion people is 29 / 96 tonnes CO2 / capita.
The numbers provide the clearest possible view because they are:
1. calculated per capita (everyone has an equal right to the atmosphere)
2. Rooted in the carbon budget
3. do not include unproven carbon capture technology.
4. are be based on consumption, not territorial emissions.
5. do not include dangerous overshoot.
6. the emissions reductions needed start from now and continue at that rate.
Sources:
UN Only One Earth Science – Summary for Future Generations
Michael Wadleigh, Birgit van Munster
Further explanation, references and data: birgitvmunster@gmail.com, +44 7538 416
The scientists listed below are among other eminent scientists that have reviewed and support the public communication of this existential UN science presented by OnlyOneEarth.science.
Dr Jian Liu (Chief Scientist UNEP),
Dr Pavel Kabat (Chief Scientist WMO),
Dr Soumya Swaminathan (Chief Scientist WHO),
Dr Youba Sokona (Vice Chair IPCC),
Dr Janez Potocnik (Co Chair IRP),
Dr Shamila Nair-Bedouelle (Director General Science UNESCO),
Dr Guido Schmidt-Traub (Executive Director UNSDSN),
Dr Elizabeth Mrema (Executive Secretary CBD),
Dr Stefan Swartling Peterson (Director Health UNICEF)
Background data sources:
Global Carbon Budget 2020, Consumption emissions.
* when consumption emissions are not known, territorial emissions are used (76 nations, 3.9% of total emissions, 9.4% of population)
* Meinshausen M J et al, (2021) NDC factsheets, https://www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR6, WG1, Climate Change (2021) The Physical Science Basis. Table 5.8: Assessed remaining carbon budget - 83% probability is used.
The remaining Carbon Budget to limit global warming to 1.5ºC / 2ºC (compared to 1850-1900) is 300 / 900 GtCO2 by 1/1/2020, or 260 / 860 GtCO2 by 2021, for a 83% probability, with no overshoot and no negative emissions.
88% of budget allocated to fossil fuel emissions and cement equals 229 / 757 GtCO2 from 2021 onwards.
United Nations World Population Prospects – 2019 revision.
Human population in 2021 is 7.9 billion. 229 / 757 billion tonnes of CO2 divided over 7.9 billion people is 29 / 96 tonnes CO2 / capita.
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