The C7 Soybean Market application is intended to contribute information that can be used to plan a soybean marketing policy in grain by farmers.
The C7 Soybean market is made up of two environments that allow different analyzes:
The first, "Formation of Price," is based on an econometric model and has been developed in order to allow the user to draw up projections for soybean prices (without VAT) from expectations related to listing of and Commodities Exchange Chicago futures (Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT), the exchange rate and export award. We emphasize that the resulting projections of these variables explain on average 85% of the formation of the soybean price (without VAT). Therefore, the estimated price could make a difference of up to 15% of the price charged by the market, when compared to the price of the day. As a result, we recommend the use of projections to explore and better understand trends in the medium and long term, given the expectations for the prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), in the Exchange Rate and the Export Award.
The second environment, "Historical charts-Series" is made up of: a) charts with monthly time series of the average prices in the markets of Maringa / PR, Mogiana / SP, Passo Fundo / RS and Rondonópolis / MT in R $ / bag, deflated by domestic supply General Price Index (IGP-DI); b) average prices of CBOT in US $ / Bushel, deflated by the US Price Index (IPC-US); c) Export Award by reference in the Port of Paranaguá / PR, in US $ / ton, deflated by the US Price Index (IPC-US); Real Exchange Rate resulting from the differential between the US and IPC-IGP-DI multiplied by the Commercial Dollar.
Importantly soybean market the grain is influenced by dynamic factors difficult to be obtained "ex ante" by econometric models. In this context, the sudden changes in the business decisions that affect the marketing of soy organizations that dominate this market, climate conditions that generate expectations about the markets and the freight and insurance costs may reduce the efficiency of the parameters estimated by the econometric model available.
Data sources: ABIOVE (http://www.abiove.org.br/site/index.php), CBOT (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/), Central Bank of Brazil (http: //www.bcb.gov.br/), IPEA (http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/).
The C7 Soybean market is made up of two environments that allow different analyzes:
The first, "Formation of Price," is based on an econometric model and has been developed in order to allow the user to draw up projections for soybean prices (without VAT) from expectations related to listing of and Commodities Exchange Chicago futures (Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT), the exchange rate and export award. We emphasize that the resulting projections of these variables explain on average 85% of the formation of the soybean price (without VAT). Therefore, the estimated price could make a difference of up to 15% of the price charged by the market, when compared to the price of the day. As a result, we recommend the use of projections to explore and better understand trends in the medium and long term, given the expectations for the prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), in the Exchange Rate and the Export Award.
The second environment, "Historical charts-Series" is made up of: a) charts with monthly time series of the average prices in the markets of Maringa / PR, Mogiana / SP, Passo Fundo / RS and Rondonópolis / MT in R $ / bag, deflated by domestic supply General Price Index (IGP-DI); b) average prices of CBOT in US $ / Bushel, deflated by the US Price Index (IPC-US); c) Export Award by reference in the Port of Paranaguá / PR, in US $ / ton, deflated by the US Price Index (IPC-US); Real Exchange Rate resulting from the differential between the US and IPC-IGP-DI multiplied by the Commercial Dollar.
Importantly soybean market the grain is influenced by dynamic factors difficult to be obtained "ex ante" by econometric models. In this context, the sudden changes in the business decisions that affect the marketing of soy organizations that dominate this market, climate conditions that generate expectations about the markets and the freight and insurance costs may reduce the efficiency of the parameters estimated by the econometric model available.
Data sources: ABIOVE (http://www.abiove.org.br/site/index.php), CBOT (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/), Central Bank of Brazil (http: //www.bcb.gov.br/), IPEA (http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/).
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